The 2025 Israel–Iran War has profoundly reshaped the Middle East’s security landscape, with relevant implications for Sino–Middle Eastern relations. By analyzing scholarly and media discussions in China and across the region, alongside Chinese official statements, this report assesses how the war has influenced perceptions of China’s role and future in the Middle East.
Much of the media debate focused on how, despite their partnership, China refrained from providing direct material support to Iran during the war. Beijing’s official response, centered on calls for de-escalation and respect for sovereignty, was widely interpreted as “balanced” and “neutral”, sparking debate over China’s commitment to its regional relationships. Chinese experts largely echoed official rhetoric, condemning U.S. and Israeli actions while also analyzing the deeper causes of the conflict. Given the limited reactions to the U.S. intervention in Israel’s favor, many Chinese commentators also questioned whether regional actors are truly capable of advancing a multipolar order, exposing contradictions in the prevailing Chinese narrative of Western decline. Additionally, the lack of analysis on China’s potential role revealed uncertainty among Chinese scholars about Beijing’s ability to contribute meaningfully to regional stabilization, underscoring its seemingly limited leverage.
Nevertheless, across the Middle East, Beijing is not regarded as an irrelevant actor. Scholars and commentators from the region continue to view China as an indispensable partner their governments should continue to engage with. In Israel, public discourse remained wary of China’s ties with Iran, yet several experts and diplomats interpreted Beijing’s “balanced stance” as an opportunity to reset bilateral relations, driven by trade and Israeli fears of diplomatic isolation. In Iran, while disappointment over China’s muted response was widespread, many commentators directed criticism toward their own government for failing to deepen strategic cooperation with Beijing, particularly in the domains of defense and infrastructure. Across the Arab world, and in Gulf state-aligned media especially, China’s “positive neutrality” was generally welcomed. Overall Middle Eastern analysts acknowledged and even justified Beijing’s pragmatism and restraint, viewing its posture as consistent with its broader strategic priorities.
This report concludes by exploring some recent development noting that while China’s role in the Middle East remains constrained by its caution and limited capacity, regional observers regard and will likely continue to perceive Beijing as an indispensable economic, strategic, and diplomatic partner. The war has prompted reassessments of China’s reliability, but not a desire for disengagement; instead, many experts in the region appear to be advocating for recalibrated partnerships grounded in mutual interests rather than idealized expectations. As the regional context continues to evolve, Sino–Middle Eastern relations remain as relevant, and debated, as ever.
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